Integrated Early Warning and Response System

About the System

An epidemiological threshold-based outbreak risk monitoring system for infectious disease cases in Yogyakarta Special Region, Indonesia.

Regency

Risk Criteria

1.0–3.0

Risk Score Range

μ+1.5σ

Threshold Method

Weighted Multi-Criteria Risk Scoring

This system classifies disease outbreak risk by analyzing historical case data and epidemiological factors, using a weighted multi-criteria methodology that combines statistical case deviation, geographic/institutional clustering, and clinical severity.

Combining all three into a single 1.0–3.0 total risk score, the score jointly weighs statistical deviation (30%) from historical case distribution, geographic & institutional clustering (40%), and clinical severity & vulnerability (30%).

Data Collection:

Historical disease case data, climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall), and NDVI satellite vegetation indices

Spatial Analysis:

Geographic and institutional clustering criteria assess how concentrated case reports are across regencies, puskesmas, and institutions

Clinical Severity:

Case reports are assessed for rate of hospitalization, complications, and whether they affect vulnerable age groups

Risk Scoring:

The weighted score combines all three criteria into a single risk classification, updated as new monthly case data arrives

Recommendations:

Automated health recommendations based on the calculated risk level to support decision-making

Risk Scoring Criteria

Statistical Deviation

Mean+1.5SD / Q3+1.5IQR vs. historical case distribution, weighted 30%

Geographic Clustering

Case concentration across RT/RW, villages, and institutions, weighted 40%

Clinical Severity

Hospitalization rate, complications, and vulnerable age groups, weighted 30%

Total Score

Weighted sum, range 1.0–3.0, classified into Low / Medium / High

Risk Classification

Weighted score: 30% statistical deviation + 40% geographic clustering + 30% clinical severity

Low (1.0–1.6)

Total score 1.0–1.6 (historical + clustering + severity criteria)

Moderate (1.7–2.3)

Total score 1.7–2.3 (historical + clustering + severity criteria)

High (2.4–3.0)

Total score 2.4–3.0 (historical + clustering + severity criteria)

The statistical-deviation component is computed per regency per month using data from 2021 up to the year before the assessed period; clustering and severity scores are entered by the reporting health officer.

Data Sources

Case reports drive the weighted risk score; climate and vegetation data provide supplementary environmental context.

Case Data

Weekly disease case counts from health offices across 5 regencies in Yogyakarta

Weekly 5 Regencies From 2021

Climate Data

Temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other weather variables from the OpenWeatherMap API

OpenWeatherMap Monthly avg

NDVI Data

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from MODIS satellite imagery (NASA NEO)

MODIS NASA NEO 250m resolution

Technology Stack

Open-source tools powering the system end-to-end.

Backend

Flask 3.0

Web framework

NumPy

Statistical computing

SQLAlchemy

Database ORM

Pandas

Data processing

OpenPyXL

SKDR Excel import

Frontend

Bootstrap 5

UI framework

Chart.js 3

Data visualisation

Font Awesome

Icon library

Responsive

Mobile-friendly design

i18n

ID / EN bilingual

Dark mode

Theme switching

For More Information

This system is developed to support public health decision-making in disease prevention and control across Yogyakarta Special Region.

Public Dashboard View Statistics